Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2012-09-27
  • bobpage estimated 3% on 2012-09-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “100 years is a long time. on 2012-09-28
  • William-Quixote estimated 95% and said “agreed 100 years is a long timeon 2012-09-28
  • RandomThinker estimated 65% and said “Repub party has only lasted 150 yrs or so. Decent chance there’ll be a third party, plus chance of independent, plus change of nameon 2012-09-28
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 90% and said “…plus, the GOP is strangling itself right now, and there are at least two national third parties, one of which is rapidly absorbing the RINOs. on 2012-09-28
  • JoshuaZ said “Nathan, do you mean the libertarians as the one absorbing accused RINOs? Overall, they aren’t growing by that much. on 2012-09-28
  • bsm estimated 30% on 2012-09-28
  • NathanMcKnight said “Joshua: Well, their numbers might not be growing, but their election results have. It may be that the GOP is shedding its moderates into the independent and/or disillusioned category, a chunk of whom are becoming more apt to vote Libertarian.on 2012-09-29
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 45% and said “5%? Are you serious?on 2012-09-29
  • faws estimated 40% on 2012-09-29
  • bobpage said “not many elections with an early singularityon 2012-09-30
  • Ken estimated 35% on 2012-10-02
  • RobertLumley estimated 25% on 2012-10-02
  • sharanga estimated 90% on 2012-10-10
  • kilobug estimated 85% and said “Parties don’t tend to last that strong for a century.on 2012-10-10
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 80% on 2012-10-13
  • themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-10-10
  • vinegar estimated 70% on 2018-10-25
  • pranomostro estimated 70% on 2018-12-08
  • Baeboo estimated 15% on 2018-12-12

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