Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-09-27
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2012-09-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “100 years is a long time. ” on 2012-09-28
• William-Quixote estimated 95% and said “agreed 100 years is a long time” on 2012-09-28
• RandomThinker estimated 65% and said “Repub party has only lasted 150 yrs or so. Decent chance there’ll be a third party, plus chance of independent, plus change of name” on 2012-09-28
• NathanMcKnight estimated 90% and said “…plus, the GOP is strangling itself right now, and there are at least two national third parties, one of which is rapidly absorbing the RINOs. ” on 2012-09-28
• JoshuaZ said “Nathan, do you mean the libertarians as the one absorbing accused RINOs? Overall, they aren’t growing by that much. ” on 2012-09-28
• bsm estimated 30% on 2012-09-28
• NathanMcKnight said “Joshua: Well, their numbers might not be growing, but their election results have. It may be that the GOP is shedding its moderates into the independent and/or disillusioned category, a chunk of whom are becoming more apt to vote Libertarian.” on 2012-09-29
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 45% and said “5%? Are you serious?” on 2012-09-29
• faws estimated 40% on 2012-09-29
• PseudonymousUser said “not many elections with an early singularity” on 2012-09-30
• Ken estimated 35% on 2012-10-02
• RobertLumley estimated 25% on 2012-10-02
• sharanga estimated 90% on 2012-10-10
• kilobug estimated 85% and said “Parties don’t tend to last that strong for a century.” on 2012-10-10
• chemotaxis101 estimated 80% on 2012-10-13
• themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-10-10
• vinegar estimated 70% on 2018-10-25
• pranomostro estimated 70% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 15% on 2018-12-12