The average healthy, non-smoking, physically active male reader of Reddit now in his early 30s will live long enough to experience a Singularity and in some manner escape the bonds of traditional mortality.

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01

• Pablo estimated 10% on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “Luke Muehlhauser assigns this event “Maybe [a] 30%” chance (http://goo.gl/fKCXM)).” on 2012-10-01
• Pablo changed their prediction from “The average healthy, non-smoking, physically active male reader of Reddit now in his early 30s will live long enough to experience a Singularity and in some manner escape the bonds of traditional "mortality.” on 2012-10-01
• gwern said “~50 year timespan, so this boils down to Singularity by 2060.” on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “Are you assuming a positive singularity or do you just believe such a singularity is overwhelmingly likely?” on 2012-10-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10