A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-01-01.

• Pablo estimated 35% on 2012-10-01
• Pablo changed their prediction from “A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utlitas by 2013” on 2012-10-01
• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-10-01
• Porejide estimated 20% and said “I don’t know much about you, but I do know academic overconfidence. I like you from your predictions though, so best of luck!” on 2012-10-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2012-10-05
• Pablo said “Thanks, no offense taken! I tried to discount my initial assessment to account for academic overconfidence, but I fear there is an analogue of Hofstadter’s law in this domain too (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter).” on 2012-10-06
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2012-10-13
• Pablo said “I lost interest in the topic, so I doubt a paper will be written in the near future, let alone accepted for publication.” on 2014-01-01
• Pablo   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-01.