Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01

• Pablo estimated 50% on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “Context: http://goo.gl/DJU3n.” on 2012-10-01
• RandomThinker estimated 30% and said “Russia joining EU is least likely out of this combo prediction.” on 2012-10-01
• gwern estimated 5% and said “no way. Russia is not joining, ever – they wouldn’t want to and the EU doesn’t want them in, and right now it’s a serious 50% question whether the EU will meaningfully survive to 2040.” on 2012-10-01
• Pablo estimated 20% and said “I should have broken this conjunctive statement into separate predictions. I can now see that my previous estimate wasn’t made in full awareness that the conjuncts had to be all true. Updating.” on 2012-10-02
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% and said “Russia will not be assimilated.” on 2012-10-02
• chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2012-10-13
• seifip estimated 4% on 2013-04-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 5% and said “Conjunctions – every single one of these is not that improbable, but the conjuction!” on 2018-12-08
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2018-12-12
• 6thNapoleon estimated 1% on 2019-02-08
• n99 estimated 1% on 2022-10-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2022-10-29