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By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01

  • Pablo estimated 10% on 2012-10-01
  • Pablo said “Context: http://goo.gl/DJU3n” on 2012-10-01
  • Pablo said “The Economist predicts that China will overtake the US economically in 2018 (and has accepted a bet on this prediction!): http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/03/china-will-overtake-america-within-decade-want-bet” on 2012-10-01
  • RandomThinker estimated 60% and said “I’d bet against Economist on that any day. China’s probably still 15 yrs away on economy (China @ $7t GDP v. US $15t). And 40 yrs away on military. That’s assuming things go well.” on 2012-10-01
  • RandomThinker said “Reading the economist article more, the original estimate is China is largest economy by 2027, which is exactly 15 yrs away. That’s more reasonable.” on 2012-10-01
  • Pablo said ““[Pattis] He would like to bet that China’s dollar GDP (calculated at market exchange rates) will NOT surpass America’s in 2018.”” on 2012-10-01
  • Jayson Virissimo said “How are we going to judge relative military power? Some combination of the number of soldiers, fighter jets, aircraft carriers, nukes?” on 2012-10-01
  • gwern said “yeah, staying away from this one – how do you quantify military power except with a war?” on 2012-10-01
  • Pablo changed their prediction from “By 2040 The US remains the world's strongest power, militarily and economically. — Axel Boldt” on 2012-10-02
  • Pablo estimated 18% and said “I changed the prediction to remove vague reference to military prowess. Updating in light of this change.” on 2012-10-02
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Here is an easier to verify statement that is still somewhat true to the spirit of Boldt’s prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8490” on 2012-10-02
  • RandomThinker estimated 21% and said “Updating in light of change to remove reference to military.” on 2013-04-29
  • themusicgod1 estimated 36% on 2016-10-10
  • omni estimated 50% on 2021-07-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 44% on 2021-07-23
  • Baeboo estimated 46% on 2021-07-25
  • stepan estimated 20% on 2021-07-26