Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

• Pablo estimated 20% on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “Robust mouse rejuvenation is defined as “reproducibly trebling the remaining lifespan of naturally long-lived (three years average lifespan) mice with therapies begun when they are already two.” (http://goo.gl/B8cnt))” on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “De Grey makes the prediction here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4uJ7rq1qX8” on 2012-10-01
• Pablo estimated 12% and said “But in this Powerpoint presentation, he seems to claim the event will likely happen by 2012! http://goo.gl/TtLCSI’m lowering my estimate.” on 2012-10-01
• RandomThinker estimated 20% on 2012-10-01
• Pablo estimated 16% and said “For some reason, I keep changing my mind on this one.” on 2012-10-01
• gwern estimated 10% and said “just to carry out 1 installment requires close to 9 years – 3 year average * 3 = 9.” on 2012-10-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 15% on 2012-10-13
• iconreforged estimated 10% on 2013-01-14
• Tuxedage estimated 35% and said “I think you guys are underestimating the probability. I’m assuming that Aubrey de Grey believes that this will happen with greater than 50% probability, thus, I’m leaning towards his probability estimate, as he knows more than me.” on 2013-01-14
• Leo estimated 10% on 2013-01-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-01-14
• pranomostro estimated 8% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 6% on 2018-12-12
• Pablo said “De Grey now thinks there’s a 50-50 chance of having robust mouse rejuvenation by early 2022.” on 2019-04-13
• Pablo said “https://youtu.be/PMFST20xHwk” on 2019-04-13
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2020-05-13
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2020-11-20
• Baeboo   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.