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China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020.

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-01; known on 2027-12-31

  • RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-10-01
  • Pablo said “Your prediction makes no sense: you also predicted that China will not have world’s largest GDP before 2040 with 60% confidence. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8462” on 2012-10-01
  • gwern estimated 65% and said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1547 by 2025 or American per capita 3x in 2050 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3006” on 2012-10-01
  • RandomThinker said “@Benthamite: I said 60% because the prediction originally included a military component. I can’t withdraw my prediction now, and I try not to make 2 answers on one prediction ” on 2012-10-02
  • RandomThinker said “@Benthamite mainly because the scoring here treats it like 2 totally separate predictions. I don’t want my score sheet to be swamped with duplicate entries (e.g half my 85% answers are just updates of 65% answers when time has passed).” on 2012-10-02
  • RandomThinker said “@Benthamite it’s awesome you’re recording so many predictions on this site though!” on 2012-10-02
  • Pablo said “Hi Random Thinker. The original prediction that the US will be the strongest economic and military power. Both of the conjuncts in that conjunctive statement need to be true in order for the prediction to be true.” on 2012-10-03
  • Pablo said “So removing one of the conjuncts should, if anything, cause you to increase your estimate that the statement will be true.” on 2012-10-03
  • RandomThinker said “@Benthamite, then i misread your original. I thought you meant one or the other.” on 2012-10-03
  • RandomThinker said “US intel report says by 2030. So I guess that makes their answer to this 45%. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/10/china-economy-surpass-united-states_n_2271781.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003” on 2012-12-11
  • DaFranker estimated 60% on 2012-12-12
  • seifip estimated 60% on 2013-04-14
  • Tuxedage estimated 70% on 2013-04-14
  • themusicgod1 estimated 40% on 2016-10-10
  • pranomostro estimated 35% on 2018-12-08