Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01

• Pablo estimated 80% on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “Context: http://math-www.uni-paderborn.de/~axel/predictions.html” on 2012-10-01
• NathanMcKnight estimated 90% and said “Aren’t there already HIV vaccines in trial? ” on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “Yes, but some vaccines once in trial have already failed. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV_vaccine#Clinical_trials_to_date” on 2012-10-01
• gwern estimated 90% and said “hard to see it remaining unsolved especially with partially successful vaccines to build on” on 2012-10-01
• Porejide estimated 90% and said “operationalizing “successful” as decreasing odds of having > 10^3 HIV RNA molecules per mL plasma given contraction at mean infection titers by > 100, and this is or the equivalent shown published studies” on 2012-10-04
• RandomThinker estimated 35% and said “I think progress in these areas are slower than you like. Plus there’s good money to be made in treatment.” on 2012-10-05
• NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2012-10-05
• chemotaxis101 estimated 60% on 2012-10-13
• Qiaochu estimated 80% on 2012-12-06
• btrettel estimated 50% and said “Related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/127439” on 2015-10-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-10-11
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 85% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 85% on 2018-12-12