Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01

• Pablo estimated 25% on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “Context: http://math-www.uni-paderborn.de/~axel/predictions.htmlFor the purposes of judging this prediction, ‘widely socially accepted’ is understood as a level of social acceptance equal to or greater than that of IVF today.” on 2012-10-01
• NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2012-10-01
• gwern estimated 40% and said “human cloning so far seems to have zero uptake, more than a decade after Dolly. even animal cloning is only successful in a few niches – (although cattle is a very big niche)” on 2012-10-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 35% on 2012-10-13
• ChristianKl estimated 30% on 2012-11-29
• Qiaochu estimated 20% on 2012-12-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2013-08-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2013-08-15
• lavalamp estimated 15% on 2013-08-16
• Michael Dickens estimated 25% on 2014-01-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2018-12-08
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 32% on 2018-12-12
• qznc estimated 10% on 2020-04-15
• Baeboo estimated 30% on 2020-04-15