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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01

  • Pablo estimated 25% on 2012-10-01
  • Pablo said “Context: http://hanson.gmu.edu/wildideas.html” on 2012-10-01
  • gwern estimated 30% and said “hm, uploads maybe although the discount rate problem remains (interstellar travel is really expensive). regular people? probably not” on 2012-10-01
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 5% and said “Interstellar travel is sloooow. Warp drive might do it, but I suspect we’ll spend a good long time in the solar system before we move on. ” on 2012-10-02
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2012-10-02
  • kilobug estimated 25% on 2012-10-10
  • NancyLebovitz said “What are the odds that predictionbook will still exist then?” on 2012-10-10
  • gwern said “Nancy, why does PB have to exist? every page on PB I visit is entered into http://www.gwern.net/Archiving%20URLs and besides that, the database can be passed on to any new prediction services. as long as someone cares enough…” on 2012-10-10
  • Pablo said “I agree with gwern. The relevant question concerns the probability that the information recorded in PredictionBook will exist in ten thousand years.” on 2012-10-10
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 10% and said “So what are the odds this particular piece of information will exist in 10,000 years?” on 2012-10-13
  • DrDiaphanous estimated 40% and said “I estimate there are 15 million stars within 1000 light years (based on 1 per 280 ly^3, tell me if you have a better estimate). So if humanity survives and sends out generation ships at 10% c “soon” (within 1000 yrs) this should be true.” on 2013-01-10
  • DrDiaphanous said “gwern, we need PB to exist in some form, otherwise it won’t automatically notify me in 10 000 years.” on 2013-01-10
  • Tuxedage estimated 30% on 2013-01-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 21% on 2013-01-27
  • army1987 estimated 10% on 2013-02-14
  • themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
  • pranomostro estimated 50% on 2018-12-08
  • pranomostro estimated 35% on 2018-12-08
  • Baeboo estimated 35% on 2018-12-12