If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson

Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01

  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 5% on 2012-10-01
  • Pablo Stafforini said “Context: http://hanson.gmu.edu/wildideas.html. Hanson attaches a ~6% chance to this prediction (http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html)).on 2012-10-01
  • bobpage said “Whose head?on 2012-10-01
  • gwern estimated 4% on 2012-10-01
  • Pablo Stafforini said “The head of anyone who is cryogenically frozen.on 2012-10-01
  • bobpage said “English is ambiguous there. Do all the frozen heads have to be alive in 2100, or just one?on 2012-10-02
  • Pablo Stafforini said “How likely do you think it is that you’ll be alive in 2100 if you “die” before that date and your head is cryogenically frozen? The answer to this question should be your estimate for this prediction.on 2012-10-02
  • Pablo Stafforini said “So, technically it is only your head that needs to be alive. But since your situation differs little, in the relevant respects, from other people’s, your estimate is generally valid for anyone whose head is frozen.on 2012-10-02
  • kilobug estimated 5% on 2012-10-10
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2012-10-13
  • themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
  • pranomostro estimated 6% on 2018-12-08
  • Baeboo estimated 5% on 2018-12-12

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