Luke Muehlhauser will not publish a book (by a mainstream publisher) in 2013.

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-11.

• Pablo estimated 92% on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “Unless my estimates are unacceptably high, Luke’s own prediction of publishing a best-seller in 2013 is way off, since the probability of a book (even Luke’s) becoming a best-seller conditional on its being published is clearly very low/” on 2012-10-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 90% on 2012-10-13
• Tuxedage   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-04-13.
• Tuxedage said “http://intelligenceexplosion.com/ebook/ Book released.” on 2013-04-13
• gwern said ““Publisher: Machine Intelligence Research Institute (February 1, 2013)Sold by: Amazon Digital Services, Inc.” <— this is ‘a mainstream publisher’?” on 2013-04-16
• Tuxedage said “Hm. I’m not quite sure. Isn’t amazon quite mainstream? How are we defining mainstream?” on 2013-04-16
• gwern said “Amazon is merely distributing a digital file, I think. if that’s ‘publishing’, then they must be the biggest mainstream publisher in the world, which will come as a surprise to other publishers” on 2013-04-17
• Pablo said “The ‘mainstream publisher’ clause was meant to exclude precisely books of the sort Tuxedage mentions. So I think the prediction was correct, though I will let others judge it since I have a personal stake in it.” on 2015-02-10
• Pablo   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-02-10.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2015-02-11.
• ethaneshaw said “<br><br><a href="http://Cheongsam145.webs.com"> blog </a><br><br>” on 2015-04-26