They won't be able to upload a honey bee brain into a robot insectoid by end of 2015

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-10-03
• RandomThinker said “The “Green Brain Project” is working on it. http://io9.com/5948202/new-project-aims-to-upload-a-honey-bees-brain-into-a-flying-insectobot-by-2015” on 2012-10-03
• Porejide said “What constitutes a successful simulation? (Presumably it will have to reproduce some intra-honey bee variability, but without specifics it cannot be judged.) ” on 2012-10-04
• RandomThinker said “@Porejide since I don’t know the tech it’s hard to say, but they would have to announce in the press that they’ve done this, and ordinary smart readers think it’s a fair description of the result.” on 2012-10-08
• JFE estimated 95% on 2012-10-10
• chemotaxis101 estimated 80% on 2012-10-13
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.