In 2013, the ratio of anecdotes confirming Seth Roberts's various pet theories published in Roberts's blog, relative to those disconfirming them, will be at least 10 to one.

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-06-16.

• Pablo estimated 80% on 2012-10-06
• Pablo changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” and made the prediction on 2014-05-01
• Pablo said “I can’t be bothered to go through all Roberts’ posts from 2013, but if anyone else feels like doing this, be my guest.” on 2014-05-01
• Pablo said “(Sorry for making the prediction public now, just a few days after Roberts untimely death. I just hadn’t visited this site for many months and the idea was to make the prediction public only after the deadline had passed.” on 2014-05-01
• Pablo said “My goal was to test the hypothesis that Roberts is very selective in the type of anecdotes he decides to publish on his blog.” on 2014-05-01
• gwern said “I don’t think you really need to canvas them: I can hardly remember him ever posting negative anecdotes.” on 2016-01-01
• Pablo   judged this prediction right on 2017-06-16.