D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2017-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-10-06.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-10-06
• gwern said “background: https://plus.google.com/103530621949492999968/posts/U11X8sec1pU” on 2012-10-06
• gwern said “background: https://plus.google.com/103530621949492999968/posts/U11X8sec1pU” on 2012-10-06
• gwern said “‘defunct’ is a little vague, but basically if they’re still producing new hardware you can buy or engaging in cutting-edge research, I’d count that as non-defunct” on 2012-10-06
• RandomThinker estimated 65% and said “Pretty good chance if it includes bought. Investors don’t support money losing corps for a long time, but someone else might pick it up.” on 2012-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-10-08
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% and said “running out of time” on 2016-10-10
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2017-09-25
• Tenobrus estimated 1% on 2017-10-03
• gwern said “Still around as an independent company, still questionable.” on 2017-10-06
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-10-06.