D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2022-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-10-06.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-10-06
• gwern said “background: https://plus.google.com/103530621949492999968/posts/U11X8sec1pU” on 2012-10-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 59% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 46% on 2018-12-08
• gwern said “Still no clear quantum supremacy or real world use, but still somehow getting money and remaining independent. /shrug” on 2022-10-06
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-06.