D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2015

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-10-06
• gwern said “background: https://plus.google.com/103530621949492999968/posts/U11X8sec1pU” on 2012-10-06
• RandomThinker estimated 20% on 2012-10-07
• kilobug estimated 10% on 2012-10-10
• gwern said “last news I can find is July where they claim >1k qubits to be released by end of year http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/07/15/dwave_breaking_thousandqubit_barrier_with_forthcoming_quantum_system/ but no anns of actual shipping? marking wrong” on 2015-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.