D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2012-10-06
• gwern said “background: https://plus.google.com/103530621949492999968/posts/U11X8sec1pU” on 2012-10-06
• kilobug estimated 40% on 2012-10-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 1% on 2016-03-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2016-03-16
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 50% on 2016-03-23
• themusicgod1 said “http://www.dwavesys.com/blog/2015/06/breaking-through-1000-qubits should count” on 2016-10-10
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2016-10-10.
• themusicgod1 said “…or do we want to wait until the effective qubit rate is this high?” on 2016-10-10