D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2016

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2012-10-06
• gwern said “background: https://plus.google.com/103530621949492999968/posts/U11X8sec1pU” on 2012-10-06
• kilobug estimated 10% on 2012-10-10
• gwern said “seems like the most they’ve reached is 1000 qubits: so off by at least a factor of 2 http://www.dwavesys.com/press-releases/d-wave-systems-breaks-1000-qubit-quantum-computing-barrier” on 2016-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.