D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-10-06
• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-10-06
• gwern said “background: https://plus.google.com/103530621949492999968/posts/U11X8sec1pU” on 2012-10-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2012-10-08
• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2012-10-08
• kilobug estimated 25% on 2012-10-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 1% on 2016-03-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 54% and said “assuming for wording purposes we’re using dwave qbits as our metric rather than true qbits” on 2016-10-10
• gwern said “seems to max out at 2k right now (and still unknown if it delivers any real speedups)…” on 2018-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.