Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18

• NathanMcKnight estimated 50% on 2012-10-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 41% on 2012-10-17
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-10-17
• gwern estimated 40% and said “I don’t even know what the base rate here should be” on 2012-10-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 44% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 50% on 2018-12-08