Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022).

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by mad 20 days ago.

  • Aticper estimated 80% on 2012-10-24
  • RandomThinker estimated 20% on 2012-10-24
  • Aticper said “Nevada and California have already moved to legalize the cars, and Google has a lot of lobbying power. I think it’s reasonable that they’ll get the legislation passed in 26 states in ten years. on 2012-10-24
  • gwern said “They’ve been legalized under extremely narrow provisions which are tailored towards allowing limited experimentation by large wealthy corporations; the legislations basically do nothing to resolve the insurance and liability issues.on 2012-10-24
  • Aticper said “It’s a move of good faith. And ten years is a long time to establish relevant caselaw, especially if it happens at a federal level. on 2012-10-24
  • Elithrion estimated 63% and said “Assuming we mean “available to at least some consumers in >50% of states and legal to drive on the roads in autonomous mode with human supervision in those states”.on 2013-02-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2013-02-01
  • mad estimated 30% on 2015-01-06
  • Pablo estimated 27% on 2015-02-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
  • mad   judged this prediction wrong 20 days ago.

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