Assuming Obama wins second term, Tim Geithner won't continue as treasury secretary

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-10-24
• gwern estimated 65% on 2012-10-24
• smijer estimated 45% and said “I’d give 55% if this were qualified for the full duration of the second term. 45% that he will be immediately terminated (by February ’13)” on 2012-11-03
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Geithner#End_of_term resignation should be official by February” on 2013-01-26
• RandomThinker said “Timmy is out!” on 2013-06-15
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-15.
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2013-06-15.