Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.

• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-10-26
• RandomThinker said “Not talking about electoral college, just popular vote.” on 2012-10-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 41% on 2012-10-26
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 42% on 2012-10-27
• NathanMcKnight estimated 45% on 2012-10-27
• museveni estimated 55% and said “The polls show it” on 2012-10-28
• NathanMcKnight said “Museveni: Which polls? ” on 2012-10-28
• NathanMcKnight said “538 has 29.8% for Romney winning popular vote, RCP has 47.7%. Intrade has 47% for a win of 0.5+ points, Iowa Electronic has Obama winning pop vote. ” on 2012-10-28
• Qiaochu estimated 20% and said “FiveThirtyEight. ” on 2012-11-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2012-11-03
• smijer estimated 30% on 2012-11-03
• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-11-04
• RobertLumley estimated 30% on 2012-11-04
• Sarokrae estimated 50% on 2012-11-05
• Turtleread estimated 20% and said “I would ask that “Civics” be put back into the school curriculum if this happened, even if it meant extending the school day.” on 2012-11-05
• smijer estimated 35% on 2012-11-06
• beo_shaffer estimated 40% on 2012-11-06
• smijer   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.
• smijer   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-11-07.
• RandomThinker said “Not looking likely. Fox News has Obama ahead 59m to 56m right now, close to final I think.” on 2012-11-07
• RandomThinker said “Calling it. Google election results say Obama 60.6m, Romney 57.8m http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results” on 2012-11-08
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-08.