Charles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month and will clearly confirm or deny authorship.

Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-28.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-10-28
• gwern said “http://www.gwern.net/Death%20Note%20script#the-truth http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8989 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8991” on 2012-10-28
• Qiaochu estimated 30% on 2012-11-09
• gwern said “he replied, but he denied it based solely on noticing that my summary said Ryuk was deleted from the story; this however is consistent with the studio editing it, and I can’t take that as a clear denial. marking wrong.” on 2012-11-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-28.