Within 6 months, a nationally-known Democratic strategist, pundit, or politician will claim that Obama's performance in the first 2012 debate was a clever strategy to lower expectations.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2012-10-28
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2012-05-01” on 2012-10-28
• Pablo estimated 25% on 2012-11-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 41% on 2012-11-05
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-02-27
• andrevan estimated 55% on 2013-04-27
• Isaac estimated 20% on 2013-05-09
• gwern said “marking wrong in lieu of any citations to the contrary; I’ve seen some recent mentions in political columns of the first debate and none characterize it as anything but a triumph for Romney” on 2013-07-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-01.