My stolen iPad will not be found within 4 weeks.

Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-25; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-11-27.

• Qiaochu estimated 90% on 2012-10-29
• gwern estimated 80% on 2012-10-29
• Pablo estimated 95% and said “If it hasn’t been found by now, it probably never will.” on 2012-11-04
• Sarokrae estimated 80% on 2012-11-06
• ShIxtan estimated 90% on 2012-11-24
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-27.