Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2012-10-30
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-10-30
• RandomThinker said “I had a prediction along same lines Nathan. Check it it. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6466” on 2012-10-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 41% on 2012-10-30
• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-11-01
• Jayson Virissimo said “How are you judging this? Would a debate question about marijuana legalization count as a win?” on 2012-11-01
• NathanMcKnight said “I think “major” would have to include significant coverage in mainstream media, plus major party candidates weighing in on the issue and at least one debate question. ” on 2012-11-01
• smijer estimated 50% on 2012-11-03
• kilobug estimated 25% on 2012-11-09
• Ken estimated 20% on 2012-11-12
• ChristianKl estimated 30% on 2012-11-29
• Yvain estimated 20% on 2012-12-25
• sdr estimated 20% on 2016-06-17
• themusicgod1 said “from outsider’s perspective it seems significant on Trump side at least.Trump: 100% for medical marijuana [http://hightimes.com/news/politics/pot-matters-trump-on-marijuana/ ], and it’s an issue that does seem to come up often this season.” on 2016-10-10
• themusicgod1 said “http://fortune.com/2016/07/12/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-marijuana/ likewise for clinton: it could be that it’s not as prominent because they agree things have to change” on 2016-10-10
• gwern said “marijuana basically didn’t come up. I think this should be marked wrong.” on 2017-01-01
• two2thehead said “+1 For marking as wrong.” on 2017-01-01
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.