Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter.
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
- scott.arbeitman estimated 40% on 2009-12-08
- Tom estimated 30% and said “scotttiiiiiieeeeeee :)” on 2009-12-13
- ChristianKl estimated 1% and said “There are much safer geoengeering schemes than nuclear explosions.” on 2009-12-21
- Matt estimated 1% and said “‘in order to create a nuclear winter’ is a burdensome detail – several sanctioned explosions for another purpose are not enough? (Hi Scott)” on 2009-12-22
- Jack estimated 0% on 2009-12-28
- gwern estimated 99% and said “wow” on 2010-08-31
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
- JoshuaZ said “Gwern you estimated 99% for. Did you mean 99% against? ” on 2011-06-16
- gwern estimated 1% and said “oops, yes, I did.” on 2011-06-17
- Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-12
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-12-06
- faws estimated 0% on 2012-01-04
- themusicgod1 estimated 9% and said “2016 is going to be the hottest for awhile, thanks to a temporary bump from el nino. So the political impossibility of any other action gets a couple years. 2019 too soon.” on 2016-06-14
- Reactionaryhistorian estimated 0% on 2016-06-14
- two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Nuclear powered geoengineering? Maybe. Nuclear explosions? Not going to happen.” on 2016-06-14
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2017-11-25
- Athrithalix estimated 1% on 2018-02-22
- pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-11-25
- sebbit estimated 1% on 2019-12-05
- sebbit estimated 0% on 2019-12-05
- scott.arbeitman judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-08.