New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.

RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-11-02
RandomThinker said “as measured by rottentomatoes.com. 57% for Phantom Menace and 67% for Attack of the Clones.” on 2012-11-02
Jayson Virissimo estimated 70% and said “The “Phantom Menace” conjunct is redundant.” on 2012-11-03
smijer estimated 85% on 2012-11-03
gwern estimated 70% and said “SW is fundamentally good material. I don’t think Disney can screw it up much” on 2012-11-04
Jach estimated 75% on 2012-11-05
JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2012-11-05
RobertLumley said “I think this is poorly phrased – Since Attack of the Clones is better than Phantom Menace, it seems like improper anchoring to mention Phantom Menace at all.” on 2012-11-08
RandomThinker said “@Robert Phantom Menace is worse, but I’m just making a logical statement. It’s better than both 1 and 2, but I’m not sure if it’ll be better than Revenge of the Sith. ” on 2012-11-08
drethelin estimated 80% on 2012-11-08
bsm estimated 80% on 2012-11-09
Qiaochu estimated 70% and said “Regression to the mean. ” on 2012-11-10
BrunoCoelho estimated 55% and said “The expectancy of a good film will make it a less good film.” on 2012-11-10
HonoreDB estimated 70% on 2012-11-14
Mathir25 estimated 80% on 2012-12-06
ygert estimated 65% on 2012-12-16
Yvain estimated 65% on 2012-12-25
Benja estimated 70% on 2013-02-10
tormey estimated 70% on 2013-02-10
Tuxedage estimated 80% on 2013-02-10
DaFranker estimated 80% on 2013-02-11
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qznc estimated 60% on 2015-11-25
JoshuaZ estimated 68% on 2015-11-25
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PlacidPlatypus judged this prediction right on 2015-12-28.
PlacidPlatypus said “Currently at 94%. I expect it to fall some once the excitement wears off but I can’t see it getting below 70%.” on 2015-12-28