Kyrgyzstan will experience a change in ruling party or civil unrest before 2017.

Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• jasticE estimated 60% on 2015-04-19
• jesselevine estimated 40% on 2015-04-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2015-08-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 45% on 2016-07-10
• gwern said “I’m not seeing anything of note in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Kyrgyzstan for 2015-2016, so marking wrong” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.