HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 1 month, have 215-792 reviews posted on FF.net

Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-14.

• gwern estimated 85% on 2012-11-03
• gwern said “for the reasoning see the conclusion of http://lesswrong.com/lw/fag/analyzing_ffnet_reviews_of_harry_potter_and_the/ / http://www.gwern.net/hpmor#analysis” on 2012-11-04
• gwern estimated 70% and said “dropping based on graphing the confidence interval” on 2012-11-04
• gwern said “dec11-jan11: 44. well, that was quite wrong. even ch101 only has 84 total reviews now.” on 2014-01-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-14.
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