In the 2014 election, someone will make a serious run for Congress, Senate or Governor as a secessionist

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 55% on 2012-11-09
• RandomThinker said “most likely repub from the south, but that just makes this harder to grade. Has to be at least top 2 in primary for R or D, or further. Not counting third parties or fringe candidates.” on 2012-11-09
• RandomThinker changed their prediction from “In the 2014 election, someone will try to run for Congress as a secessionist” on 2012-11-09
• RandomThinker changed their prediction from “In the 2014 election, someone will try to run for Congress, Senate or Governor as a secessionist” on 2012-11-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% and said “Counting top 2 in primary? Very likely then. Incumbents often have a single crazy running against them in their party primary. ” on 2012-11-10
• RandomThinker said “@Josh and he/she has got to get some press. I’m not digging through old primary records to find this person :) He/she’s got to make it in the mainstream press so we can google them out easily. ” on 2012-11-11
• RandomThinker said “The top 2 in primary criteria is so the press can’t make someone who doesn’t have a remote chance into some kind of internet meme star.” on 2012-11-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 31% and said “Reducing my estimate then per your fairly strict criterion. ” on 2012-11-11
• gwern said “I haven’t heard of any, so marking wrong” on 2014-12-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-01.