Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.

Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

• Nadanate estimated 70% on 2012-11-13
• andrevan estimated 25% on 2012-11-24
• JoshuaZ said “I think the due date on this needs to be fixed. ” on 2012-11-24
• RobbBB estimated 15% and said “By “significant” I’ll understand “polling at least 10% nationally”” on 2012-11-24
• NathanMcKnight estimated 30% on 2012-11-24
• Michael Dickens estimated 30% on 2012-11-29
• Nadanate changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-12-31
• gwern estimated 20% on 2012-12-31
• Tuxedage estimated 25% and said “Also using RobbBB’s definition of 10% polling.” on 2012-12-31
• hedges estimated 25% on 2013-04-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2018-12-12
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-11-20
• Bruno Parga said “I disagree that what Johnson got in 2016 – a few outlier polls at 10% in a first-past-the-post system, which discourages people from actually voting third party – means “significant support”. I would mark this as wrong.” on 2021-01-01
• Baeboo   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.