'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide “mined” from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2091-01-01.

The first human being will be born on mars between 2070 and 2090 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2091-01-01.

Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

By 2092, “20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct.” —Charles Stross ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

“Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.” ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

“There will be 5-10 billion people.” —Charles Stross ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

By 2092, any orbital solar power stations will still be for space applications, and not ground use (eg. beaming it down as microwaves) —Charles Stross ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

“computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some” by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

“The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?” —C ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

I am going to live for at least another 80 years ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-07; known on 2094-12-31.

'2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.' ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.

i live to use quell ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2096-01-01.

Will Adam D'Angelo become a father? ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Denver even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 50.4 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020? ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-27; known on 2099-01-01.

Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

Strong AI to arise out of IBM ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Boston even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 51.5 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father? ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.

The Earth (after climate change) to become as hot as the Eocene Hothouse (at least once) ( 25% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2099-01-01.

Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-23; known on 2099-01-01.

“Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.

Michael Moore lives to see 26 states with legalized pot ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-08; known on 2099-12-31.

CPT symmetry violated ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-05; known on 2099-12-31.

Each of {Trump, Biden} will be president in at least one branch of the multiverse. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-06-01; known on 2100-01-01.

“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.” ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.

“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.

Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. — David Pearce ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2012-10-01; known on 2100-01-01.

World War III ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jasonau12345 on 2020-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2100-01-01.

A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2100-01-01.

The Urbit network will never have >50.000 users over the span of a month. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-03-12; known on 2100-01-01.

I will not convert to an abramist faith on my deathbed ( 100% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-07; known on 2100-01-01.

By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.

Humanity will decrease deaths per person-year due to aging to 0.009% before reducing violent deaths to 0.0003%. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by imuli on 2015-11-15; known on 2100-01-01.

Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-02; known on 2100-01-01.

Under assumptions of PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, PSPACE != EXP, PSPACE not in P^{MSCP}/poly, UGC, GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that BPP is contained in ZPP^(NP^MSCP) by January 1, 2100 ( 100% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2100-01-01.

Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2100. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

How/“why” (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by asdadfa on 2012-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.

At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.