Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

“computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some” by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

I am going to live for at least another 80 years ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-07; known on 2094-12-31.

'2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.' ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.

i live to use quell ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2096-01-01.

Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-18; known on 2099-01-01.

Strong AI to arise out of IBM ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020? ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-27; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Adam D'Angelo become a father? ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Denver even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 50.4 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-23; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father? ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Boston even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 51.5 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

The Earth (after climate change) to become as hot as the Eocene Hothouse (at least once) ( 25% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2099-01-01.

“Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.

Michael Moore lives to see 26 states with legalized pot ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-08; known on 2099-12-31.

CPT symmetry violated ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-05; known on 2099-12-31.

Conditional on Tibet being granted independence, at least as many political prisoners as 2017 per capita are found to be in/from Tibet 10 years later. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2100-01-01.

“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.” ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

Wogs are less likely to listen to authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl or not limited to < 50% compliance ) ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Wogs are more likely to listen to the right kind of authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( in > 65% compliance ) ( 29% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.

“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.” ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

Under assumptions of PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, PSPACE != EXP, PSPACE not in P^{MSCP}/poly, UGC, GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that BPP is contained in ZPP^(NP^MSCP) by January 1, 2100 ( 100% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2100-01-01.

“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2100-01-01.

Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2100-01-01.

Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. — David Pearce ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2100-01-01.

At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.

Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-02; known on 2100-01-01.

“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.” ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2100. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.

When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.

I will live longer than JoshuaZ ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2100-01-01.

One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.

Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.

The Urbit network will never have >50.000 users over the span of a month. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-03-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Each of {Trump, Biden} will be president in at least one branch of the multiverse. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-06-01; known on 2100-01-01.

There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2100-01-01.

How/“why” (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by asdadfa on 2012-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.

If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.

World War III ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jasonau12345 on 2020-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.

I will not convert to an abramist faith on my deathbed ( 100% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-07; known on 2100-01-01.

Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.

A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2100-01-01.