[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 5001-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 6001-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 7001-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 8001-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9001-01-01.

Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.

Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.

This prediction is currently judged 'Unknown' or 'Wrong'. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-15; known on 9999-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-24.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.

The Clock of the Long Now will show a 1 as its first digit. ( 1% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 9999-12-31.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.