i live to use quell ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2096-01-01.

'2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.' ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.

Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-18; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Adam D'Angelo become a father? ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.

Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020? ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-27; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Denver even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 50.4 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

Strong AI to arise out of IBM ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father? ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Boston even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 51.5 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

The Earth (after climate change) to become as hot as the Eocene Hothouse (at least once) ( 25% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2099-01-01.

Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-23; known on 2099-01-01.

CPT symmetry violated ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-05; known on 2099-12-31.

“Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.

Michael Moore lives to see 26 states with legalized pot ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-08; known on 2099-12-31.

The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.

“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.

“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.

I will not convert to an abramist faith on my deathbed ( 100% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-07; known on 2100-01-01.

“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2100-01-01.

By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.

“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.” ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

World War III ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jasonau12345 on 2020-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.

“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.” ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

Humanity will decrease deaths per person-year due to aging to 0.009% before reducing violent deaths to 0.0003%. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by imuli on 2015-11-15; known on 2100-01-01.

Conditional on Tibet being granted independence, at least as many political prisoners as 2017 per capita are found to be in/from Tibet 10 years later. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2100-01-01.

Under assumptions of PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, PSPACE != EXP, PSPACE not in P^{MSCP}/poly, UGC, GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that BPP is contained in ZPP^(NP^MSCP) by January 1, 2100 ( 100% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2100-01-01.

Wogs are more likely to listen to the right kind of authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( in > 65% compliance ) ( 29% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Wogs are less likely to listen to authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl or not limited to < 50% compliance ) ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.

There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2100-01-01.

Dire Wolves to be resurrected by 2100 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

I will live longer than JoshuaZ ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2100-01-01.

Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2100-01-01.

The Great Filter is virtual reality. (Specifically: by 2100, humanity will see no reason to leave earth as we will be able to explore the galaxy within our simulated worlds.) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-03; known on 2100-01-01.

Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.

Each of {Trump, Biden} will be president in at least one branch of the multiverse. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-06-01; known on 2100-01-01.

At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.

If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.

One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.

When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2100. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.

“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.” ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-02; known on 2100-01-01.

Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. — David Pearce ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2100-01-01.

The Urbit network will never have >50.000 users over the span of a month. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-03-12; known on 2100-01-01.