PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2201-01-01.

“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.

Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2214-01-01.

There will be no border in 200 years. ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2214-08-13.

I will break my 251 day Anki review streak within my lifetime. (Wait… who is going to resolve this question?) ( 4% confidence )

Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2221-04-25.

Not only does 9th planet exist, but 10th planet hiding in the Kuiper belt somewhere too ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-29; known on 2266-01-01.

Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-05; known on 2300-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2301-01-01.

“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2319-01-01.

Abrupt drop off found in space dust sizes above 2.176 × 10E−5 g ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-21; known on 2400-01-01.

living things in Gliese 581g system as of past 20 years ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2400-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2401-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2501-01-01.

Invisible clothes will be real in 5OO years later ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2511-04-16.

There will be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2016-01-27; known on 2522-06-25.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2601-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2701-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2801-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2901-01-01.

Intelligent lifeforms found on other planets by the end of the 2000s. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by HolmesSherlockHolmes on 2013-11-13; known on 3000-01-01.

Will we be able to upload our consciousness to the cloud by the year 3000? ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kadavy on 2021-03-29; known on 3000-01-01.

https://gnosis.pm survives longer than predictionbook ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 3000-01-01.

I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 3000-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 3001-01-01.

Vipul will get married before he dies ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.

I will have a gf at some point ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.

this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.

Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.

If the Earth's magnetic field reverses polarity before the confirmation of axions, the data collected during the event will provide confirmation. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 3014-10-20.

Conditional on human beings being still alive, most of them will be on earth, whatever 'human being' and 'earth' mean in 3016 ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-07; known on 3016-12-31.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 4001-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 5001-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 6001-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 7001-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 8001-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9001-01-01.

This prediction is currently judged 'Unknown' or 'Wrong'. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-15; known on 9999-01-01.

Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.

Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-24.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )