When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 50% accuracy for the 100% category
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-21.
- btrettel estimated 50% on 2015-07-07
- btrettel said “Not meant to be a hostile prediction. Estimating other people’s overconfidence can be useful. I’m not sure if Raahul_Kumar will figure out he’s (very likely) overconfident in time or something else.” on 2015-07-07
- JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-07-07
- JoshuaZ said “Interesting type of prediction. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/119475 for slightly larger range. ” on 2015-07-07
- EloiseRosen estimated 40% on 2015-07-09
- EloiseRosen estimated 40% on 2015-07-09
- btrettel estimated 60% and said “Hmm… my math might be misleading. Hard to predict if Raahul_Kumar has a bunch of private goals which may influence this, or whether he’ll have a change of heart for many predictions.” on 2015-07-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 29% on 2015-11-01
- EloiseRosen estimated 20% and said “Updating. We’re currently at 12 100% confidence predictions with an accuracy of 67%.” on 2015-11-12
- JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2015-11-12
- danielfilan estimated 20% and said “I’m seeing 12 100% confidence predictions with accuracy 75%.” on 2015-11-13
- EloiseRosen said “danielfilan: That’s odd. One of the 100% confidence predictions must have gone from being marked unknown/incorrect to correct in the last day.” on 2015-11-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 18% on 2016-01-21
- PseudonymousUser said “I just checked: his accuracy is currently 79% with 68 predictions. ” on 2016-01-21
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-21.