Aronwall will publically state that he drops his belief in Christianity after discussing his belief on his blog with other rationalists before the end of 2013. (See http://lesswrong.com/lw/fyt/wanted_rationalist_pushback/)

Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2014-01-03.

• ChristianKl estimated 30% on 2012-12-21
• gwern estimated 25% and said “why would anyone want to bother?” on 2012-12-21
• Michael Dickens estimated 25% on 2012-12-22
• dhoe estimated 5% on 2012-12-25
• ChristianKl   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-03.