The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010.

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

  • dakyne estimated 75% on 2010-05-11
  • gwern estimated 30% on 2010-07-30
  • dakyne said “@gwern, r u still at 30% on this one? My account value says differently.on 2010-09-19
  • gwern estimated 40% and said “It was a reasonable prediction in August when the spot was still at 17 or 18. how did it jump from 17.8 on aug 23 to nearly 21 now? :(on 2010-09-19
  • dakyne estimated 80% and said “I’m increasing from 75 to 80% because we are already above $20, but with high volatility, anything can happen. @gwern, it would take too long to explain.on 2010-09-27
  • dakyne estimated 95% and said “The question is now whether silver can get over $30/oz. by Dec. 31, not $20. $20 is a given.on 2010-12-20
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2010-12-30.
  • dakyne said “Spot silver ended up above $30/oz. on Dec. 31, 2010.on 2011-01-04

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction