The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010.

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• dakyne estimated 75% on 2010-05-11
• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-07-30
• dakyne said “@gwern, r u still at 30% on this one? My account value says differently.” on 2010-09-19
• gwern estimated 40% and said “It was a reasonable prediction in August when the spot was still at 17 or 18. how did it jump from 17.8 on aug 23 to nearly 21 now? :(” on 2010-09-19
• dakyne estimated 80% and said “I’m increasing from 75 to 80% because we are already above $20, but with high volatility, anything can happen. @gwern, it would take too long to explain.” on 2010-09-27
• dakyne estimated 95% and said “The question is now whether silver can get over $30/oz. by Dec. 31, not $20. $20 is a given.” on 2010-12-20
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-12-30.
• dakyne said “Spot silver ended up above $30/oz. on Dec. 31, 2010.” on 2011-01-04