“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.

  • gwern estimated 60% on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/126on 2010-07-29
  • kallman estimated 80% and said “Check hans rosling. General trend for quality of life to improve everywhere on average.on 2010-11-23
  • hedges estimated 30% on 2013-03-22
  • ShIxtan estimated 80% on 2013-04-30
  • Tuxedage estimated 80% on 2013-05-02
  • gwern said “LB hasn’t updated it even though it’s clearly expired… I guess I will bump a year.on 2013-06-30
  • gwern said “kallman: of course there is progress, but this is a five-fold conjunction, and at least one of them, energy, can be extremely volatileon 2013-06-30
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2013-06-25on 2013-06-30
  • gwern said “still no judgment from LB. I’ve left a comment there askingon 2014-06-30
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2014-06-30on 2014-06-30
  • gwern said “LB has awarded it to Burns, the proposer, so marking this right.on 2015-05-28
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2015-05-28.

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