An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013.

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-30; known on 2013-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-05.

  • kochikvp estimated 60% on 2010-08-30
  • gwern estimated 5% and said “Perpetual motion has been invented too. 0 chance any new invention would get certified and see uptake; so I’ll split the difference.on 2010-08-31
  • Bagricula estimated 80% and said “excluding uptake probability…am gonna need to dig through the patent officeon 2010-09-29
  • gimpf estimated 1% on 2010-12-12
  • Jach estimated 3% on 2011-08-18
  • Osuniev estimated 2% and said “of course it is easier to predict that now.on 2013-09-05
  • gwern said “marking wrong in lieu of someone coming up with an exampleon 2013-09-05
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2013-09-05.

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