A terrorist incident involving the death of 1 or more Americans occurs before year end on American soil (excludes perpetrators).

Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-13.

jesselevine estimated 42% on 2016-04-01
tedks estimated 80% on 2016-04-02
equivrel estimated 70% on 2016-04-02
PipFoweraker estimated 65% on 2016-04-03
kuudes said “How will terrorist incident be understood in this question? (esp given low bodycount)” on 2016-04-03
jesselevine said “A crime that is either claimed by or linked to a terrorist organization. ” on 2016-04-03
JoshuaZ said “That’s a very broad definition. Often organizations make claims that they did disasters. For example multiple terrorist groups claimed responsibiltiy for TWA 800.” on 2016-04-04
jesselevine said “The only instances that I would deem eligible for this prediction that have happened in recent years are San Bernardino and Boston Marathon. ” on 2016-04-04
tedks said “Also Dylan Roof and similar… he had as many links to “terrorist organizations” as the San Bernardino shooters.” on 2016-04-06
two2thehead estimated 80% and said “Underestimating it even though I think it would be in the nineties. I am assuming the 2015 San Bernadino attack to be mold of any future terrorist attack. Lone wolf/wolves who have no obvious connection/training by terrorists.” on 2016-04-06
themusicgod1 estimated 86% and said “Long term trends say the odds of this are very good.” on 2016-04-12
two2thehead said “Posting here so a more knowledgeable person can look and decide regarding the night club shooting.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Orlando_nightclub_shooting” on 2016-06-13
two2thehead said “Regarding my prediction + probability, I’m almost certain that I am right. :-(” on 2016-06-13
PseudonymousUser said “shooter “called 911 before the shooting and swore allegiance to Islamic State”; Obama’s speech included “act of terror” when referring to this” on 2016-06-13
PseudonymousUser judged this prediction right on 2016-06-13.