California's Proposition 19 will be approved. (This doesn't cover legal action after the election, just that it gets a simple majority.)

Created by ggreer on 2010-09-30; known on 2010-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-03.

• ggreer estimated 40% on 2010-09-30
• gwern estimated 30% and said “I should note I’m currently shorting $50 of this on Intrade: https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=702407&z=1285860588558” on 2010-09-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-11-03.