Ross William Ulbricht will not be found guilty of any charges, whether through acquittal, or charges not being brought, or any other reason.

Created by tedks on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.

• tedks estimated 2% on 2013-10-02
• tedks said “Some arguments as to why I’m wrong: https://medium.com/i-m-h-o/85dc5cccf8c6” on 2013-10-02
• tedks estimated 1% on 2013-10-04
• gwern estimated 5% and said “that link is completely delusional. wow. how can you be so ignorant of legal issues that you think any of that made a lick of difference? (+5% to account for suicide, murder, deals, procedural issues, etc)” on 2013-10-05
• Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-10-05
• tedks said “Bets of Bitcoin: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1751” on 2013-10-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2013-11-01
• gwern estimated 4% and said “see http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/11/ross-ulbricht-loses-bail/” on 2013-11-21
• gwern said “guilty on all 7 charges after ~4h of jury deliberation” on 2015-02-04
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-02-04.