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By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any “spirit”, “god” or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI.

Created by waveman on 2014-01-05; known on 2030-01-02

  • waveman estimated 35% on 2014-01-05
  • waveman changed the deadline from “on 2030-01-01” and changed their prediction from “By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain kinds of intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any “spirit”, “god” or quantum magic. This will be made possibly by the advent of sufficiently” on 2014-01-05
  • ChristianKl said “Recognised by whom? Do you basically claim a change or do you claim that things will be as they are now?” on 2014-01-05
  • waveman changed the deadline from “on 2030-01-01” and changed their prediction from “By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any “spirit”, “god” or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI.” on 2014-01-09
  • waveman changed the deadline from “on 2030-01-02” and changed their prediction from “By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any “spirit”, “god” or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI. In response to a question below: I” on 2014-01-09
  • waveman said “I mean it will not be a controversial issue among serious scientists and philosophers. Just as the existence of “elan vita” as a necessary ingredient for life is no longer taken seriously” on 2014-01-13
  • mfb estimated 20% and said “Ending discussions (if possible by the first AI at all – even for humans of some skin colors this took very long) is far beyond the scope of the human brain project, and that is estimated as 1bn € and 10+ years from now.” on 2014-01-13
  • waveman said “The first genome took $1b and ten years. Now they rare a few thousand. Progress in this is exponential.” on 2014-01-14
  • Vulture estimated 5% on 2014-01-21