Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030'

Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-05-10
• gwern said “http://www.vetta.org/2011/05/sutton-on-human-level-ai/” on 2011-05-10
• gwern said “2020: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/16712040: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1451” on 2011-05-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 85% on 2011-06-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 75% on 2011-08-17
• gwern said “mean of 2028 reiterated: http://www.vetta.org/2011/12/goodbye-2011-hello-2012/” on 2011-12-31
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-07
• Baeboo estimated 15% on 2019-01-08