“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2011-08-15
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.

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