“Intrade.com to be open for business on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 100% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743136 99.9%” on 2011-08-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2011-08-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 94% on 2011-08-24
• PseudonymousUser said “looks open” on 2012-01-01
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-01.