NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2012

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2011-09-07
  • gwern estimated 17% and said “initial reasoning: (1.0 = September 2007, 2.0 = July 2009, 2.0 slipped by 1.5 years); but with the recent ANN, I don’t see it slipping 2011, and then into 2013, so…on 2011-09-07
  • gwern estimated 80% on 2011-09-12
  • Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-10-10
  • gwern said “in august, after a 2.0 broadcast, trailer claimed ‘autumn 2012’. again, delays are a concernon 2012-01-01
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.

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